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March 06 An AGLOCO for All MembersThis is another of the very helpful Harold posts that I feature here.
please enjoy Julie
AGLOCO is a ‘big’ idea. What I mean by that is that AGLOCO must attract a big community to be effective. By their own standards the creators of AGLOCO have stated they want a community of at least 10,000,000 members. (Seems like a big number but it is just about 1% of the current Internet population.)
Oh don’t get me wrong, I think they can be profitable at 500,000 or so. But to really be the Internet Revolution I and others think they can be, they need to be 10,000,000 on their way to 100,000,000.
AGLOCO is still a pre-launch company (yes they have an enormous amount of publicity for a pre-launch Internet startup coming out of Stanford University – but they only announced their existence four months ago). Much focus has been on AGLOCO member growth and the AGLOCO referral system. It has been stated by AGLOCO that less than 20% of AGLOCO members will ever have a referral and less than 5% will ever have many referrals.
So, AGLOCO is much like a big tree with lots of leaves – regular members represented by the leaves. Like any tree, it will only flourish if the leaves are healthy.
To do that AGLOCO must appeal to a large segment of the world’s internet population. Let’s see what their chances look like.
Cost /ease of being a regular AGLOCO member.
• Free – no cost to join or maintain Membership – software is free
• Joining takes less than 2 minutes. • Viewbar takes up a small amount of the desktop while surfing • All information private – so no cost there • No spam (a once a month AGLOCO update email appears to be the total email incursion.) • Viewbar can be turned off anytime with one click – no spyware Conclusion – cost to regular members is very low.
Benefits of being a regular AGLOCO member
• Some utility (probably not as much as the Google or Yahoo toolbars)
• Income from monthly surfing - $50 to $100 a year (smaller in first year) • Income from affiliate rebates (discounts etc. - varies by person greatly - but the biggest users of the Internet would get the most benefits) • Income from being an owner – could be more than $100 if a regular member is an early joiner. Conclusion – a small but reasonable amount of cash income plus positive value of software utility.
Based on this very quick look at AGLOCO’s leaves, they should be very happy. They do almost nothing and get something (even $50 a year is infinitely more than any other software is paying them).
As the AGLOCO economic network grows over time, the amount of utility should increase as well as the actual cash economic dividends. This should mean the leaves stay green and the AGLOCO tree continues to grow healthy.
I do think that AGLOCO is a good idea for ALL Members. February 21 Talking about How I got to 17,000 AGLOCO referralsMcCall - nothing to add How I got to 17,000 AGLOCO referrals - and you can copy it for free - really, nothing to buy :) When will AGLOCO pay me?February 21st, 2007 by haroldbbbg1619 http://haroldbbbg1619.wordpress.com/
I have read that question more than once on comments around the Internet.
Seems we have some Capitalists among the Revolutionaries. Well it is an Economic Revolution, so I think the Capitalists are in the right place, at the right time and are asking the right questions.
With ALGOCO there are two distinct different forms of payment for two distinct forms of member effort.
The two efforts are:
1. Being an AGLOCO member – using the Viewbar and generally being a worthwhile Internet economic ‘person’. (Looking at ads, downloading software and buying things online.)
2. Being a builder of the AGLOCO network (this means referring new members to the system.)
The two payment types are:
1. Cash – monthly (PayPal, checks, e-gold, direct bank deposits, Amazon dollars etc. – member picks his favorite least cost payment type)
2. AGLOCO Ownership – accumulated hours earned over time – earned directly and with referrals.
Here is how I analyze these things
Cash – (below are my opinions)
• I believe this will be very small amounts during 2007 slowly growing over time.
• I think that the ‘affiliate’ revenue sharing for people who do shop online will be the biggest source of cash to those people. • AGLOCO must pay its operating cost (as small as they probably are) before having money to pay members • Over time this should grow to more than $10 a month for the average member. • Builders will just get more of this. Member ownership
• This all members should be accumulating starting with the first hour of viewbar usage.
• Valuation of this I have blogged about with my six part Simmons Report series. – (but using the Simmons Report $150 over a two/three year period is a value that should be reasonable.) • How to sell these hours before AGLOCO is a public entity is a worthwhile question. My guess is that some enterprising member will set up a marketplace to buy and sell hours (like they buy and sell airline miles – big business in that I searched on Google and got 94,000 pages about it. This market would provide the cash some people would prefer today and a huge potential upside for those members who think AGLOCO will be a breakout winner. • AGLOCO’s website says they will use part of their profits to buy ownership from members. • Builders will just get more of this (much more) – The Simmons Report uses an average value of $30 for each referral – of course this will be more for early referrals and will only have any value of the Viewbar is used by the referrals. The question of who would buy ownership of AGLOCO is a very simple question.
The answer is anyone who buys stock in any profit making corporation.
The Simmons Report does a nice job of outlining AGLOCO as a profit making corporation. If it paid out all its ash to members, then the it would be more like a club than a company. By making and retaining profits, AGLOCO can become an attractive Internet growth stock. Google sells for almost 50 times its annual earnings (and anyone who bought the stock when it went public has made 5 times their money so far. Yahoo sells for 60 times their annual earnings. This is because people believe it will make even more money in the future.
In order for AGLOCO to achieve the high 20 to 60 times earnings valuation, in my opinion, at some point it will have to stop (or severely slow down) the giving of new ownership to all its members. Maybe only give away annually not more than 5% - 10% of the company (which is called dilution in the stock market world).
My personal choice of who would buy AGLOCO has already been stated – Microsoft. They desperately need a way to catch up to Yahoo and Google on the Internet. AGLOCO might represent just the way to do it. Go Bill Go. February 17 AGLOCO Wants YOU
This is a wonderful post from Mccall http://mccallsnotes.spaces.live.com/ I want to be a Founder of YouTube.
February 16 Follow the Money - YouTube and AGLOCO - Where does the money go?This is from Harolds blog http://haroldbbbg1619.wordpress.com/
It is probably obvious that AGLOCO is the total focus of this blog. But with YouTube giving out shareholder details, I thought it might be fun to compare it to what AGLOCO would do with $1.7 billion dollars.
Let’s look at YouTube first.
• Founders
o Chad Hurley -$326 million o Chad Hurley Children – $19 million
o Steven Chen - $326 million (He seems to have shared with family – David Chen $9.7 million, Richard Chen $9.6 million and Sharon Chen $9.6 million
o Jawed Karim - $64.6 million (quit YouTube early and went to Stanford to get his PhD.)
Total Founders $765 million
• YouTube employees (from the list) – max time on job 18 months –
o Shannon Hermes - $1.3 million (receptionist/office manager)
o Julie Supan - $4.9 (chief press spokeswoman)
o Heather Gillette - $4 million (Director of customer support)
o Bradley Heilburn - $6.1 million (‘systems’)
o Christina Brodbeck - $8.6 million (senior user interface designer)
Micah Shebar - $1.6 million (community advocate)
o Colin Corbett - $6.5 million (Director for Networking)
o Yu Pan - $35.5 million (Senior Software Engineer)
o Michael Abe Solomon - $19.3 million (Principal Architect)
o Cuong Do - $17.7 (Engineering Manager)
o Kevin Donohue - $12.1 million (Vice President of Content)
o Dwipal Akhilesh Desai - $6.1 (Senior Engineer)
o Mayrose Dunton - $4 million (Director of Product Development)
o Erik Klein - $3.6 million (Senior Software Engineer)
o Matthew Noel Rizzo - $3.6 million (software Engineer)
o Hong J. Qu - $2.8 million ( User Interface Designer) o
Christopher Maxcy - $2.6 million (Vice President of Business Development)
o Jacob Mark McGuire - $1.6 million (Software Engineer)
Others ?
Total Employees $142 million +
• Investors (and others)
o Sequoia – over $504 million – (Invested $13 million for 8 months – wish my bank paid those rates.)
o Artis (Investments) - $75 million
o Others ?
Total Investors $579 million +
• The users/members of YouTube
As a group, they got - $0
Total users/members of YouTube $0.00
Sources:
SEC
Let’s look at AGLOCO - (a hypothetical sale at $1.7billion – please note the part above is real – the people named received Google stock with approximately that value according to the SEC. The part below is hypothetical. Used to illustrate the major economic difference )
To do this we need to make some important assumptions. Timing – say 2 years ; # of members – say 5,000,000 active members. Also to make a comparison closer, I assumed that the $1.7billion bought out both AGLOCO and the management company (which gets 10% of the gross AGLOCO revenue).
Founders, employees and investors as a group are all part of the management company – I put 10% of the $1.7 billion to buy this ($170 million).
• Founders – there are 14 founders listed on the AGLOCO website – if they get the same 45% as YouTube’s founders got it would be $76 million – split 14 ways would be an average of $5.5 million each – (not in the same league as Chen and Hurley’s $326 million each, but still a lot of money.)
• Employees – if it is the same 9% as YouTube it would be $15 million for all of the employees.
• Investors would get the rest - $79 million These seem to be all great rewards for these people. (But not headline making ones.)
• AGLOCO members - $1,530 million (given the referral system about ½ of this would go to the members who built the network – their referral network and ½ would go to all members based on their personal accumulated viewbar hours. )
o All regular members -$765 million divided by 5,000,000 members (and based on their viewbar hours) – an average of $153.
A member who joins and uses the Viewbar starting in April 2007 - $306
A member who joins and uses the Viewbar starting in March 2009 - $13
o Members with referrals (average referral would be worth $30.50 - $153 divided by 5 levels)
Referrals who start using the Viewbar in April 2007 are worth about $61 each (if they start in March 2009 - $2.50)
• Lets make some wild guesses with this valuation and use some Top Gun names to make this blog more fun to read. (To make it simple I started with the February 16 Top Gun Numbers.) T
his calculation is full of assumptions – I will use John Chow as my example of how imprecise this is. He currently has 5.072 referrals (per Top Gun). He has a stated goal of 30,000, by the end of 2007 – he is a smart person and usually hits his targets. And let’s further assume he does not quit there and grows to 60,000 by the end of March 2009. Now the 5,072 are the most valuable kind of referrals ($61) as they will start with the Viewbar early (Value to John $309,392). The next 55,000 we’ll assume are gained equally over time and with a $30.50 rate) – Value to John $1,677,500). Total is $1,986,892. But all referrals will not download the Viewbar, so let’s cut this number by 50% to $993,446.
Using similar math, here are a couple of AGLOCO Top Guns
• Mr. X - $4 million
• David Lawrence - $3.5 million
• RZ McCall - $3.2 million
• John Chow - $1 million
• Yogesh Subhanand - $ 0.7 million
• Geoff Shenk - $0.6 million
• Valerie Underhill - $0.4 million
Let’s hope these people are not out spending this money just yet. The odds of things happening this way are near 0%, but the general sharing relationships are instructive.
The AGLOCO members will get the lion’s share of the value (the group starting and financing AGLOCO will get a smaller, but fair return on their risk). Individual members who join AGLOCO, but choose not to participate in actively building it will get half of the money. And the small group of AGLOCO members who help build the network will also receive a significant portion of the value created.
Hope you had some fun reading this. The YouTube amounts were fascinating to me. And, of course, being able to demonstrate so graphically what an economic revolution AGLOCO could provide was equally fun for me. February 12 The time to Join AGLOCO is NowThis is McCall's latest - I like the tipping point lesson. The time to Join AGLOCO is Now – I passed 15,000 AGLOCO referrals. February 09 AGLOCO - Geometric SpeedI have been reading a lot of the AGLOCO blogs the past two weeks and many of them sound like McCall's below - it seems to be picking up.
I check Top Gun on this and McCall isn'tthe only one who is increasing at an increasing rate.
February 05 How Does an Internet Revolution Start?Harold just wrote a great postHow Does an Internet Revolution Start?February 5th, 2007 by haroldbbbg1619I call my blog The AGLOCO Revolution – a better name might have been The Internet Revolution. I think AGLOCO is just going to ‘ride the wave’ of a Revolution that is happening. The Revolution is that the Users of the Internet are the Creators of the Internet and should be the Owners of the Internet. And I mean this in the truly capitalistic way. AGLOCO is not a socialist idea (no socialist would ever use the referral system to reward the builders of member network). No, AGLOCO is a very capitalist idea. (the company has a bunch of Stanford MBA’s working for it – they are capitalists I am pretty sure). So how does it start? Look around… You are starting it. Like most revolutions the AGLOCO Revolution has been coming along for years. My previous post notes that Bill Gates was advocating paying users almost a year before the AGLOCO pre-launch website was posted on the Internet. And in 1999, some of the AGLOCO founders started AllAdvantage.com and it paid over $100 million to its members in less than two years - but it was owned by a bunch of venture capitalists and AGLOCO will be owned by its members. YouTube’s announcement that they will pay for content is not new. It is just a step along the trail (but even in YouTube, Google owns the company – not the user/creators.) Yes – You are starting this revolution. Check the community that has arisen in 80 days: — Google stats – 1,240,000 pages of search results – 125,000 blogger’s posts — sites with daily news reports ; plus AGLOCO feed sites and more AGLOCO news sites and AGLOCO commentary sites and AGLOCO forum sites. Even traffic on this site has tripled in the last three weeks. (When that happens you KNOW something is happening. “Where there is smoke there is usually fire.”) And then there is everyone’s new favorite site - AGLOCO Top Gun (I have become a Top Gun junkie – I read it everyday and then try to figure out who is going to catch who – and who is this new #1 Mr. X and are there more of those out there? – totally addictive) And of course, the ‘old master’, RZ McCall http://mccallsnotes.spaces.live.com/ All of us are starting this revolution even if all we do is join AGLOCO and do not recruit new members. The sheer size of the numbers is starting to be scary. McCall’s last post did a quick look at the Google search statistics for AGLOCO and put them into context. — AGLOCO catches Kobe Bryant in Internet popularity by May – This is hard to believe. Yet it is happening – three days after McCall puts his post up I did my Google search and got 100,000 more pages than his search did. That is almost a 10% increase in 3 days. (I am sure this rate goes up and down with the time of day of search on Google etc. – but even a 5% increase in three days would be amazing.) So how do you start a revolution? My answer is – Have a revolutionary idea that many people think is good and they are galvanized into action to support it. One of my favorite AGLOCO recruiters is Valerie Underhill http://www.agpcommunity.com/agloco.html . She comments often on the AGLOCO Official Company Blog. She recruited 74 people to the revolution – and they have gotten another 1,600 to join them. That is a popular idea that has galvanized people. (Bill Gates thinks the AGLOCO revolution is coming, so does YouTube’s founder Chad Hurley – but more important to AGLOCO’s Revolution right now is that Valerie Underhill thinks it is a good idea and SHE is doing something about it.) RZ McCall described Valerie and another woman recruiting for AGLOCO like this: Those are the kind of words used when a revolution is starting. February 04 Just how popular is AGLOCOMcCall'sLatest Blog And my comment on it RZ – I decided to play around a bit on Google (you seemed to enjoy it so much). I just did AGLOCO and got 1,130,000 – so up from last night. “Bill Gates” AGLOCO - 13,900 (just to see how often he shows up on the same page as AGLOCO) ; YouTube AGLOCO – 164,000 (lots of overlap here); money AGLOCO – 567,000 (I assumed this would be big); Julie AGLOCO – 819 (lots of Julie’s out there #1 was my blog J ); I like the game you invented. We should make a chart of AGLOCO and put it against some competition we want to beat. Go Bears (I was born near Chicago).
Quote Now at 13,000 AGLOCO Referrals – Just how popular is AGLOCO January 31 Analysis of Simmons Report: AGLOCO Part #6 Final ConclusionsAnalysis of Simmons Report: AGLOCO Part #6 Final ConclusionsJanuary 31st, 2007 by haroldbbbg1619Harold is one of my favorite AGLOCO bloggers
Here is part of his most recent blog on the Simmons Report about AGLOCO - personally, I recommend you read the whole post.
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Total Revenue (per member) – The simple math is: the ‘run rate’ of AGLOCO revenue at the end of 2008 is Search revenue per user (per my analysis in Part #2) $48.00 - plus Advertising revenue per user (per my analysis in Part #3) $13.44 - plus Commission revenue per user (per my analysis in Part #4) $50.00 - plus Transaction revenue per user (per my analysis in Part #5) $65.50. This equals $176.94 for Total Revenue (per member). (To understand ‘run rate’ – that is the monthly revenue rate at Dec 2008/ Jan. 2009 annualized. Since revenue is growing, the 2008 revenue would be smaller than $176.94 and 2009 would be larger.)
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Net Revenue – The simple math is: total revenue ($176.94) – less – expenses (30% of $176.94 is $53.08) – equals net revenue of $123.86 — which is a monthly net revenue of about $10.00.
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Cash distributions to AGLOCO members - On a monthly basis that would yield about $8 per month per member in cash distributions.
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Value of an AGLOCO referral - yielding $39.00 as the value of each AGLOCO referral.
This $39.00 is somewhat higher than the Simmons Report of $30.00. But, several factors should be pointed out. • Several times in the different parts of this analysis it was pointed out that the two year time given by the Simmons Report maybe too optimistic for the per member review projected. I would be much happier predicting the $39.00 valuation at the end or 2009 or sometime in 2010. • Not all members will yield the same about of ownership value. A member recruited now will have 24/36 months of Viewbar surfing time to give the referrer a substantial number of accumulated hours for ownership. A member recruited in 2008 will not have given the referrer many hours and thus at that point in time would have a much lower value. Again -- I recomend you read his whole post at http://haroldbbbg1619.wordpress.com/
Build your AGLOCO Network now - Beat the rushI just did this as a comment on th eAGLOCO Official post. Brian, Thanks for another update. I am just the opposite of Mark. (Don't get me wrong, I want AGLOCO to succeed and make all of lots of money.) But I feel like a founder of AGLOCO - this is a new experience for me. I tell my friends about AGLOCO. They look it up and we chat about it. I send them to my blog - they sign up. It's fun. AND I know that I am building a huge network inside AGLOCO. I agree with John Chow that now is the time to get as many referrals as you can. http://www.johnchow.com/3000-agloco-sign-ups Once the Viewbar is released there will be tons of completion for referrals. While on one hand this will make it easier to recruit everybody, it will make it much harder to build a wide network. And if I get as wide a network as possible now, then when the post Viewbar frenzy occurs, all of my referrals will be able to make referrals much easier. Why would I want a couple of dollars a month for the next two months when the more time I have now the more time I have to build my network, before the fund. That is what being a founder is all about. You build before you get paid – but when you get paid, it is very big. This is a true founder’s position – AND - I do not have to put up any money to participate. So please AGLOCO, like AGLOCO Test says http://www.aglocotest.com , let me build out my network first, then start the frenzy. Julie – bbbk0695 January 30 AGLOCO Top Gun - January 30, 2007Lastest edition --- just fyi Quote AGLOCO Top Gun - January 30, 2007 | ||
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